California had two of the largest fires in state history in 2024: the Park Fire and Borel Fire. According to the California Air Resources Board, of the twenty largest fires in California history, eight have occurred since 2017. The purpose of this project is to use data from the NASA Earth Observatory satellite images to create function models for the perimeter and burn area estimates for these two fires. Can the average rates of change be used to predict future wildfires? The focus of this research project is unique because these two recent wildfires are significant to residents of California. Calculating Riemann Sums for satellite images, this project estimates the burn area of wildfires day-by-day, and it can be used to predict the burn area and the fire perimeter of future wildfires and to stop wildfires from spreading further. From the NASA satellite images, I gathered aerial images from regular occurrences from the two fires. The fire perimeter distances at various times during the fire growth are being calculated. Using regression, I have thus far found functions modeling the rate of change of the burn area and fire perimeter of the two wildfires. I am hoping that my research can be used to help deter climate change in California and to prevent future wildfires from spreading further, impacting California residents.
Predictive Modelling of Wildfire Dynamics: Analyzing the Park and Borel Fires through Satellite Imagery to Enhance Fire Management in California
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Student Abstract Submission