This study attempts to determine if small retail investor interest on social media can have an impact on short-term equity performance. For each stock in a given portfolio, investor interest is determined by the frequency of mentions and other data measures, including upvotes. Related literature exists primarily between 2020 and 2022, the so-called “meme stock” era. Similar research is performed on Reddit but using a smaller portfolio and a longer data period, as well as on Twitter, Discord, and Stocktwits to correlate social media sentiments with return. This study builds upon said previous work by observing more recent 2024 data within the context of rampant growth of overall social media usage. This study utilizes the Reddit forum r/wallstreetbets, one of the most active social media sources of investor activity. To perform this research, a custom Python program was created to search the forum’s comments and aggregate the frequencies of tickers mentioned. For each stock, an analysis is run of its mentions against its short term performance over the next few days, controlling for market capitalization, book-to-market ratio, and past 12-month returns. I expect to find a measurable relationship between social media interest and subsequent performance which can depend on the stock, firm industry, market cap, etc. Understanding which stocks are most sensitive to retail investor popularity can inform future investment strategies, predict the next emergence of potential viral meme stocks, and provide insights into social media investor attitudes and sentiment.
Does stock popularity on social media impact short-term equity performance?
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